Arctic climate models playing key role in polar bea...(odels contain some element of uncertaint...)
odels contain some element of uncertainty, DeWeaver says.
"A climate model is not a crystal ball," he says. "It's impossible to make a perfect representation of climate... There are choices you make in model development that lead to a range of model behaviors. Often it is not possible to say that one [model] is better than another."
A discussion of the uncertainty inherent to climate models sometimes creates the impression that the models cannot provide useful information, he says, which is absolutely not the case.
Instead, he likens climate modeling to other predictive sciences like weather forecasting and economics. While short-term predictions may accurately pinpoint specifics, longer-scale projections are expected to reveal bigger-picture trends but fewer details.
For Arctic sea ice, the trend is clear, DeWeaver says - all models point to widespread reductions in sea ice in coming decades. What's less certain is how much melting to expect and how quickly.
Since each model represents climate in a slightly different way, the exact degree of melting - and timing of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic - vary from model to model.
Far from being a drawback, these variations in model output are "enormously helpful in understanding a range of outcomes," DeWeaver says. "Having a multi-modal ensemble gives you a way to boil things down to the essentials," identifying the most robust changes consistent across several models.
Anticipated climate change has been a key element of the polar bear equation throughout the entire listing process, he says. Unlike most species considered for federal protection, polar bears' numbers have not yet shown significant decline.
However, escalating habitat losses anticipated due to global warming and other pressures are expected to severely impact bear populations in the near future, according to the listing petition filed by the advocacy group t
'/>"/>
| Contact: Eric DeWeaver deweaver@aos.wisc.edu 608-265-5438 University of Wisconsin-Madison Source:Eurekalert |
Related biology news :
1. Antarcticas coldest, darkest season draws Montana State University researchers
2. Has the mystery of the Antarctic ice sheet been solved?
3. Krill discovered living in the Antarctic abyss
4. Observing sustainable tourism in Antarctica
5. Antarctic life hung by a thread during ice ages
6. Scientists expand understanding of how river carbon impacts the Arctic Ocean
7. Antarctic expedition provides new insights into the role of the Southern Ocean for global climate
8. Exploration of lake hidden beneath Antarcticas ice sheet begins
9. Antarctic ice loss
10. High degree of resistance to antibiotics in Arctic birds
11. Massive dinosaur discovered in Antarctica sheds light on life, distribution of sauropodomorphs
| Copyright © 2003-2009 Bio-Medicine. All rights reserved. ABOUT | CONTACT US | DISCLAIMER | PRIVACY POLICY | TERMS AND CONDITIONS |  |