C. Langdon: Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA;
B. Loose: Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA;
K. K. Yates: U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg, Florida, USA;
Jorge Corredor: Department of Marine Sciences, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico.
5. New way to forecast hurricane surge
In recent years, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, including Katrina and Ike, caused some of the highest surges on record and significant flooding, highlighting the need for good surge forecasts that can be used for early warning and evacuation. However, current approaches for surge forecasting use models that take too much computational time or that have spatial resolution too low to provide adequate forecast accuracy.
Irish et al. propose a new method for determining probabilistic maximum hurricane surge forecasts. Their approach is based on calculations of surge response functions, which are derived from numerical simulations, along with analysis of meteorological forecasts. They apply the method to data from Hurricane Ike and find that they can accurately compute surge forecast probabilities within seconds, given publicly available meteorological forecast data. The method can provide a forecast of how surge would vary along the coast and identify areas most vulnerable to high surges.
Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL046347, 2011
Title: Probabilistic hurricane surge forecasting using parameterized surge response functions
Jennifer L. Irish, Youn Kyung Song, and Kuang-An Chang: Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas,
|Contact: Peter Weiss|
American Geophysical Union