Authors: David G. Barber, Ryan Galley, Matthew G. Asplin, Kerri-Ann Warner and Mukesh Gupta: Centre for Earth Observation Science, Faculty of Environment, Earth and Resources, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; Roger De Abreu: Canadian Ice Service, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; Monika Pućko: Centre for Earth Observation Science, Faculty of Environment, Earth and Resources, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada and Freshwater Institute, Fisheries and Oceans, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; Simon Prinsenberg: Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada; Stphane Julien: Laurentian Region, Canadian Coast Guard, Quebec, Quebec, Canada.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) paper 10.1029/2009GL041434, 2009 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041434
3. Global warming increases flood risk in mountain areas
The world's mountainous regions are home to about 800 million people and the source of some of the world's major rivers. In these regions, runoff is strongly affected by temperature. This suggests that flooding could be quite sensitive to global warming, but there has been some lack of scientific consensus on the effects of temperature variations on floods. Allamano et al. show that global warming does increase flood risk significantly. The authors analyze runoff data recorded by 27 stations in the Swiss Alps and use a simple probabilistic model to study how flood risk varies with temperature, precipitation, and elevation in mountainous regions. The researchers find that large floods have occurred more frequently in recent years than in the past, and they predict that global warming will result in such floods occurring even more often in the future. In particular, they find that if global temperatures increase by 2 degrees Celsius
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American Geophysical Union