Authors: John Crusius and Andrew W. Schroth: Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA; Santiago Gass: Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Christopher M. Moy: Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA; and Geology Department, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Robert C. Levy: Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, Maryland, USA; Myrna Gatica: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Queens College, City University of New York, Flushing, New York, USA.
3. Model suggests how to end Haitian cholera epidemic
Since early November 2010, a deadly cholera epidemic has been spreading across the Caribbean nation of Haiti, killing thousands of people and infecting hundreds of thousands. While infection rates are being actively monitored, health organizations have been left without a clear understanding of exactly how the disease has spread across Haiti. Cholera can spread through exposure to contaminated water, and the disease travels over long distances if an infected individual moves around the country. Using representations of these two predominant dispersion mechanisms, along with information on the size of the susceptible population, the number of infected individuals, and the aquatic concentration of the cholera-causing bacterium for more than 500 communities, Bertuzzo et al. designed a model that was able to accurately reproduce the progression of the Haitian cholera epidemic.
The authors' prediction for further spreading of the diseasemade in late December 2010 and supported by more recent datawas that the infection rate would begin to taper off in early January. They forecast that the bulk of the cases would occur near the seat of the epidemic, in the Artibonite de
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American Geophysical Union