In Europe, the study period was preceded by three years of torrential rains, which led to the Great Famine from 1315 to 1320, and marked the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age, which began in the mid 1500s. During that time, extreme weather conditions were thought to be responsible for continued localized crop failures and famines throughout Europe during the remainder of the 14th Century.
"The marriage of complex climate models with paleo-records of sea surface temperature and other climate variables provide valuable insight to climate scientists who wish to understand climate variability and change before the instrumental record," said Burgman.
Warning that the Palmyra Atoll data only represents one data point, Burgman emphasized that he would like to test his thesis with data from other oceans. "If we can fill in the gaps with data from corals and other records from the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans, we'll have a better idea of what has happened to the global climate over time," he added.
In the study, Burgman and his colleagues used the reconstructed tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures to create a 16-member ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (ACGM) simulations, coupled with a one-layer ocean model outside of the tropical Pacific. When the ACGM simulations were compared with the modern climate simulations, they were able to reproduce many aspects of the medieval climate found in observational records for much of the Western Hemisphere, northern Eurasia, and the northern tropics. These results suggest that many features of global medieval hydroclimate changes can be explained by tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures.
|Contact: Barbra Gonzalez|
University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science